Unbeatable Erdogan? Turkey's president proves polls wrong with first-round lead Turkey's leader of 20 years has done it again. Recep Tayyip Erdogan magnanimously told supporters to respect a result that forces a first ever run-off for president. But Erdogan's supporters can cheer: with 49.5% of Sunday's vote, his lead seems all but insurmountable. We ask why predictions underestimated fierce loyalty to Erdogan, particularly in conservative strongholds of the Islamist-rooted AK Party. What do the results say about the direction Turkey seeks?